Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 37.694417 42.847900 48.986606 57.002975 67.463006 81.073902 100.937329
2025-04-20 30.778357 36.998856 45.202115 57.372607 76.157745 106.732002 168.657607
2025-04-27 26.672258 33.351923 42.842963 58.433930 86.397220 143.981778 327.759700
2025-05-04 23.853389 30.719837 41.054256 59.519906 97.505530 198.427514 879.715441
2025-05-11 21.635683 28.479895 39.241234 59.811866 107.538750 273.347805 7868.639495
2025-05-18 19.702048 26.332330 37.085327 58.690883 113.863081 361.642070 NaN
2025-05-25 18.364501 24.908523 35.849285 58.975965 124.542827 540.646684 NaN
2025-06-01 17.154287 23.527100 34.432480 58.427532 132.745161 820.788217 NaN
2025-06-08 16.085526 22.254952 33.009320 57.458612 139.192046 1308.500407 NaN
2025-06-15 15.184472 21.170885 31.779350 56.625146 145.991638 2477.996002 NaN
2025-06-22 14.442464 20.286559 30.809789 56.194599 154.765516 8192.544542 NaN
2025-06-29 13.666271 19.279440 29.481923 54.529405 156.532642 60138.997964 NaN
2025-07-06 13.462678 19.258975 30.120770 58.403590 195.216096 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 12.873830 18.508759 29.185367 57.601811 204.999282 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 12.445985 18.015884 28.730463 58.135601 227.348998 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 12.077248 17.602125 28.394510 58.968182 256.585333 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 11.694348 17.134987 27.891391 59.145974 282.479652 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 11.256895 16.539532 27.049125 57.998026 291.875246 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 10.941994 16.154386 26.638671 58.256104 323.713137 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 10.602331 15.702945 26.037712 57.709274 344.593441 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 10.263374 15.235333 25.361947 56.755849 357.851966 NaN NaN
2025-09-07 9.954933 14.810946 24.753157 55.937379 373.611695 NaN NaN
2025-09-14 9.688292 14.453803 24.272785 55.514671 399.482496 NaN NaN